Mesoscale Discussion 0912
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0619 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of eastern Montana

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 132319Z - 140115Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A few isolated to widely scattered storms are possible
   this evening in northeast Montana. Large temperature/dewpoint
   spreads will favor strong to severe wind gusts. Isolated large hail
   is also possible in the stronger storms. A WW is not currently
   expected given uncertainty in overall storm coverage. Trends in
   upscale growth will be monitored, however.

   DISCUSSION...Clusters of high-based cumulus have continued to deepen
   along a surface trough in eastern Montana. Thus far, updrafts have
   intensified and subsequently dissipated, likely due to some
   remaining MLCIN and dry air entrainment. Surface observations for
   Jordan, MT suggest that capping may be eliminated soon when
   modifying RAP forecast soundings. With modest mid-level height falls
   this evening, there is potential for isolated to widely scattered
   organized thunderstorms to impact portions of eastern Montana. The
   very well-mixed boundary layer will favor strong to severe
   convective gusts. Steep mid-level lapse rates and around 30-40 kts
   of effective shear would suggest large hail may also occur, though
   on a more isolated basis. Outflow interactions from nearby storms
   may contribute to additional storm development as activity moves
   northward. Storm coverage is enough in question that a WW is not
   expected. Trends in convective upscale growth will be monitored,
   however.

   ..Wendt/Grams.. 06/13/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...

   LAT...LON   46380688 46670714 47010743 47470766 48390811 48870800
               49060685 48920569 47610483 46700495 46060547 45770576
               45680615 45680635 45830659 46380688