Mesoscale Discussion 0913
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1134 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2020

   Areas affected...western Virginia...southern West Virginia...western
   North Carolina...eastern Tennessee...and far eastern Kentucky

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 141634Z - 141830Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible as convection
   increases and expands throughout the afternoon.  A WW issuance is
   not anticipated for this activity.

   DISCUSSION...Surface heating/destabilization along and ahead of an
   advancing boundary along western portions of the discussion area has
   allowed for development of showers and a few thunderstorms over the
   last hour.  These storms are in a continually destabilizing
   environment, with 70s/low 80s F surface temperatures resulting in
   about 1500 J/kg MUCAPE throughout the discussion area.   Lift
   associated with a mid-level wave over Ohio was also encouraging
   convective development.  Shear is weak across the discussion area,
   suggesting that any convection in the region should be either 1)
   short-lived or 2) tied to any potential upscale growth into
   forward-propagating clusters along the advancing front.  The
   instability and steep low-level lapse rates is enough for isolated
   storms to pose a brief damaging-wind threat over the course of the
   afternoon.  Isolated instances of hail cannot be completely ruled
   out.  The eastern extent of this threat should be limited by
   relatively stable conditions east of the Appalachians.

   Given the isolated nature of the threat, a WW issuance is not
   anticipated.

   ..Cook/Guyer.. 06/14/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...

   LAT...LON   37858197 38028144 37838051 37248031 36398085 35618156
               35128255 35298401 35538467 35818471 36238389 36558335
               37198261 37858197