Mesoscale Discussion 0915
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0336 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of central/southern SD...western/central
   NE...far northeastern CO...and extreme northwestern KS

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 142036Z - 142300Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe wind gusts may occur with
   developing thunderstorms this afternoon. Watch issuance appears
   unlikely.

   DISCUSSION...The cumulus field along a surface lee trough is
   becoming increasingly agitated across western NE and vicinity this
   afternoon, with recent, isolated storm development in Grant County
   NE. Additional storm development may occur through the remainder of
   the afternoon into the early evening from parts of central/southern
   SD into western/central NE, far northeastern CO, and extreme
   northwestern KS. Across these areas, surface temperatures have
   generally increased into the mid 80s to upper 90s, with a deep and
   well mixed boundary layer present per latest RAP forecast soundings.
   Although mid-level southwesterly flow gradually decreases with
   southward extent, it may still be sufficient for modest storm
   organization with generally 20-30 kt of effective bulk shear
   present. Isolated instances of strong to severe wind gusts may occur
   with any convective downdrafts given the well-mixed sub-cloud layer.
   Marginally severe hail cannot be ruled out either, especially across
   parts of central/southern SD where somewhat greater low-level
   moisture is present. Overall, the severe wind threat should remain
   fairly isolated given only glancing large-scale ascent from a
   northward-moving shortwave trough over the northern High Plains.
   Accordingly, current expectations are that Severe Thunderstorm Watch
   issuance will probably not be needed.

   ..Gleason/Guyer.. 06/14/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...

   LAT...LON   41270230 42830221 43440216 43970201 44420157 44640115
               44700026 44589976 43539950 41829975 40980013 39620180
               39530235 40660234 41270230