Mesoscale Discussion 0918
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0825 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of western and central North Dakota

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 281...

   Valid 150125Z - 150330Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 281
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A remaining supercell in Mountrail county will continue to
   pose a threat for large hail and perhaps a tornado. With more
   multicellular activity in the vicinity of this storm, upscale growth
   will likely occur in the next 1-2 hours. As that occurs, damaging
   wind gusts will be the primary threat. Activity should eventually
   impact north-central North Dakota before moving across the Canadian
   border later this evening.

   DISCUSSION...Storms that developed in southwestern portions of WW
   218 have decreased in intensity over the course of the last 1-2
   hours. This is likely due to the remaining MLCIN sampled by the 00Z
   BIS sounding. A more organized supercell has developed and moved
   into Mountrail County. This storm is likely to maintain intensity
   for another hour or two as relative minimum in MLCIN exists in the
   northwestern quarter of North Dakota according to objective
   mesoanalysis. Given the storm mode, the southeasterly winds at
   Minot, and the KMBX VAD showing low-level hodographs supportive of
   rotation, a tornado threat will accompany this storm as it moves
   NNE. With convection to the southeast and northwest of this
   supercell, some upscale growth is likely to occur with time. Without
   an organized cold pool, eastward progression will be minimal. The
   latest HRRR solutions would suggest that this activity will impact
   portions of north-central North Dakota before weakening or moving
   across the Canadian border. This evolution seems reasonable given
   the observational trends.

   ..Wendt.. 06/15/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BIS...

   LAT...LON   48460327 48980296 49180166 48850120 47800089 46930085
               46390150 46440227 46760282 48460327