Mesoscale Discussion 0919
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1245 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2020

   Areas affected...Georgia...far western South Carolina...far western
   North Carolina...and far southeastern Tennessee

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 151745Z - 151945Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A small cluster of storms over higher terrain of the
   southern Appalachians may produce brief gusty winds and isolated
   hail.  This threat will exist across the remainder of the discussion
   area today, though a WW issuance is not anticipated.

   DISCUSSION...Lightning-producing convection has developed near
   higher terrain of the southern Appalachians over the past couple of
   hours.  The storms are beneath a nearly stationary mid-level low
   over the region, with relatively cool (-12C to -15C) mid-level
   temperatures fostering a threat of marginally severe hail near the
   strongest storms.  Steep low-level lapse rates in the pre-convective
   environment will also support isolated instances of damaging wind
   gusts near a few cells.  Weak shear is present throughout the
   discussion area, however, and any potential for greater organization
   will probably evolve from any southeastward forward propagation and
   upscale growth with the current cluster as hinted at by the 16Z run
   of the HRRR.

   Towering cumulus noted in the remainder of the discussion area may
   also evolve into deep convection posing a marginal wind/hail threat
   this afternoon as well.  The isolated nature of the threat precludes
   a WW issuance, however.

   ..Cook/Guyer.. 06/15/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...TAE...

   LAT...LON   35568377 34988442 34108508 33388527 32508494 31848444
               31998368 32848288 34088255 35488293 35828322 35568377