Mesoscale Discussion 0920
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0359 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2020

   Areas affected...Far eastern North Dakota/northern Minnesota

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 152059Z - 152330Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated severe thunderstorms including a couple of
   supercells could develop across far eastern North Dakota/northwest
   Minnesota through late afternoon and early evening. Any such
   development could pose a large hail/damaging wind risk, although the
   overall extent/likelihood of severe storms remains a bit uncertain.

   DISCUSSION...Storms have recently increased north of the
   international border across southeast Manitoba, and additional storm
   development may occur with south-southwestward extent through late
   afternoon/early evening in vicinity of slow-eastward-moving front
   near the North Dakota/Minnesota border vicinity. A relatively narrow
   modestly moist/moderately unstable corridor exists ahead of the
   front, with lower/some mid 60s F surface dewpoints mostly confined
   to northwest Minnesota where low-level convergence is maximized.
   Convective inhibition continues to weaken, but short-term
   uncertainties persist regarding the likelihood/southern extent of
   deep convective development given weak overall forcing for ascent
   and residual capping. If/where storms do form, as much as 35-40 kt
   of effective shear, maximized immediately near the advancing front,
   would conditionally support supercell structures coincident with
   MLCAPE generally around 1250-1750 J/kg.

   ..Guyer.. 06/15/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...

   LAT...LON   48859345 47169482 46949689 49339680 48859345