Mesoscale Discussion 0921
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0136 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of the Outer Banks and coastal NC

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 161836Z - 162100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms moving onshore may pose an isolated strong/gusty
   wind and perhaps brief tornado threat this afternoon. Watch issuance
   appears unlikely at this time.

   DISCUSSION...Low-topped convection off the coast of eastern NC has
   recently begun to show signs of transient low-level rotation. This
   activity is occurring in a modest low-level warm advection regime to
   the north of a weak surface low. Seasonably cool temperatures aloft
   and some ascent associated with a mid/upper low centered over SC are
   also supporting these storms. Recent VWPs from KLTX and KMHX show a
   veering/strengthening wind profile with height. However, flow in the
   0-1 km AGL is still mostly from the east-northeast, which is
   limiting inland destabilization. Still, as the surface low slowly
   develops northward this afternoon, a more easterly component to the
   near-surface winds should allow for at least weak destabilization
   (MLCAPE generally 500-1500 J/kg) across parts of the Outer Banks and
   coastal southeastern NC. This instability coupled with effective SRH
   around 100-200 m2/s2 should continue to support occasional low-level
   rotation with an isolated waterspout and strong/gusty winds
   possible. As these storms move onshore, a brief tornado cannot be
   ruled out along the immediate coast. Given the limited spatial
   threat area and marginal overall environment for severe, watch
   issuance appears unlikely at this time.

   ..Gleason/Goss.. 06/16/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MHX...ILM...

   LAT...LON   33937822 34527807 34847763 35037704 35187661 35377605
               35377555 35167544 34917593 34477645 34457706 34077763
               33727781 33937822