Mesoscale Discussion 0923
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1027 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2020

   Areas affected...Central North Dakota...Northwest and Northcentral
   South Dakota

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 170327Z - 170600Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A threat for wind damage and isolated large hail will be
   possible late this evening from northwest and north-central South
   Dakota northward across central North Dakota. The threat is expected
   to remain isolated. For this reason, weather watch issuance appears
   unlikely.

   DISCUSSION...At the surface, a cold front continues to move eastward
   across the western Dakotas. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front
   generally range from the upper 50s F in central South Dakota to the
   lower to mid 60s F in south-central North Dakota. Moderate
   instability is still present along the moist corridor. Thunderstorms
   have been expanding in coverage along the western edge of moderate
   instability from near Rapid City northward to southwest of Bismarck.
   63 kt and 65 kt wind gusts were reported out of the storm just to
   the north-northeast of Faith, South Dakota. This convection will
   continue to move north-northeastward over the next few hours and
   will encounter greater buoyancy but stronger capping. This buoyancy
   combined with moderate deep-layer shear, evident on regional WSR-88D
   VWPs, will support an isolated wind damage threat for another hour
   or two. The more intense cores may also produce hail. But as the
   capping inversion increases, the threat should become marginal.

   ..Broyles/Grams.. 06/17/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR...

   LAT...LON   47610194 46670223 46020249 45050284 44600273 44270224
               44190165 44360063 45020022 47109942 47879942 48339983
               48300158 47610194