Mesoscale Discussion 0924
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1125 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2020

   Areas affected...northeastern North Carolina and southeastern
   Virginia

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 171625Z - 171830Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Gradually deepening convection may pose an isolated
   tornado or damaging-wind threat through the afternoon. A WW issuance
   is not anticipated.

   DISCUSSION...Over the past hour or so, convection has gradually
   deepened in northeastern North Carolina along a surface boundary
   located from near AVC southeastward to near HSE.  Along and ahead of
   this boundary, surface heating and gradual destabilization has
   resulted in an axis of moderate instability (2000+ J/kg MUCAPE)
   within an uncapped airmass, favoring maintenance of this convection.
   Shear profiles are marginally supportive of organization, though
   veering with height of kinematic profiles below 3km (especially with
   northward extent into Virginia) may support brief updraft rotation
   with any sustained updrafts.  This may result in a brief tornado and
   or damaging-wind-gust threat as storms migrate slowly northward
   across the discussion area through the afternoon.  The isolated
   nature of the convection and relatively weak shear should preclude
   the need for a WW issuance, though convective trends will be
   monitored over the course of the afternoon.

   ..Cook/Guyer.. 06/17/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...

   LAT...LON   37017771 37177677 37067588 36407534 35597515 35097566
               35387676 35837753 36297791 37017771