Mesoscale Discussion 0926
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0252 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2020

   Areas affected...portions of west Texas and far eastern New Mexico

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 171952Z - 172045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Convection is expected to gradually increase in coverage
   this afternoon and spread eastward across the discussion area
   through the evening.  A few instances of small hail and gusty winds
   are expected.  A WW issuance is not currently expected, though
   convective trends will be monitored.

   DISCUSSION...A few storms have developed in higher terrain in
   southwest Texas over the past couple of hours, with expanding areas
   of towering cumulus across southeastern New Mexico and near the
   NM/TX border area.  Continued surface heating was contributing to
   steep low- and mid-level lapse rates where cumulus has developed,
   and latest point forecast soundings indicate that layers of
   inhibition have nearly been completely removed.  Furthermore, subtle
   surface convergence amongst weak low-level wind fields, in tandem
   with weak to moderate buoyancy, was likely supporting these recently
   outlined convective trends.  

   Over time, models and observations both continue to suggest that
   convection will deepen and expand from west to east through the
   evening.  Though weak shear will likely contribute to loosely
   organized convection, enough coverage of convection will exist to
   pose a potential for upscale growth into one or two convective
   complexes that will move eastward - especially across the Texas
   South Plains and vicinity.  Damaging wind gusts are the most likely
   threat with this activity, though a few instances of hail cannot be
   ruled out.  It is uncertain whether this threat will become
   widespread enough to necessitate a Severe Thunderstorm Watch
   issuance.  Convective trends will be monitored.

   ..Cook/Guyer.. 06/17/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   32390448 33640448 34460404 35320309 35370205 34610151
               33290137 31480184 30650236 30310359 30550437 32390448