Mesoscale Discussion 0928
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0629 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2020

   Areas affected...the Texas South Plains vicinity

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 172329Z - 180030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A semi-organized cluster of storms will continue moving
   eastward across the Texas South Plains region over the next few
   hours.  WW issuance appears unlikely at this time due to localized
   nature of the risk, but could become a consideration if storms
   organize upscale into an MCS with time.

   DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a rather disorganized cluster
   of locally strong updrafts moving eastward across the South Plains
   region west of Lubbock at this time.  The convection is occurring
   near the dryline, ahead of which a modestly moist (near 60
   dewpoints) boundary layer is contributing to 1500 to 2000 J/kg
   mixed-layer CAPE.

   Deep-layer shear is relatively weak across the area; though winds
   veer with height, latest KLBB WSR-88D VWP indicates roughly 20 kt
   flow through mid levels.  

   With that said, some merging of outflow boundaries is evident on
   radar, which suggests some potential for a more organized,
   upscale-growing MCS -- possibly aided by development of a southerly
   low-level jet across the western half of Texas over the next several
   hours.  While HRRR-based CAMs do not support such an evolution,
   showing storms dissipating gradually this evening with the loss of
   diurnal heating, NAM-based CAMs do suggest an forward-propagating
   MCS evolving, and moving east-southeastward toward central Texas
   through this evening.  While this remains a low-confidence evolution
   at this point, such an MCS could require more serious WW
   consideration.

   ..Goss/Thompson.. 06/17/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

   LAT...LON   34270213 34440130 33949998 32909896 31679950 31520136
               32060308 33130281 34270213