Mesoscale Discussion 0929
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0747 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2020

   Areas affected...Eastern North Dakota...northwestern Minnesota

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 282...

   Valid 180047Z - 180245Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 282
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Storms are expected to move eastward this evening.
   Deep-layer meridional flow will keep progress slow outside of any
   more organized cold pools. The strongest storms should remain within
   northwest Minnesota this evening with a greater likelihood of
   elevated storms farther south.

   DISCUSSION...Earlier and more discrete activity has generally become
   more linear as storm coverage has continued to increase across WW
   282. With increasing amounts of storm interaction, discrete modes
   should remain rather isolated through the rest of the evening.
   Surface observations show an area of greater pressure falls within
   northeastern North Dakota and northwest Minnesota. Winds have backed
   to more southeasterly in response. With this area also seeing
   dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70s F, the greatest potential for
   surface-based storms into the early evening will exist here. Storm
   mode should greatly limit the tornado threat, but a brief tornado
   would be possible given the locally favorable low-level hodographs.
   Otherwise, damaging wind gusts and hail of 1-1.5 in. will be the
   primary threats before activity weakens as it moves east. Farther
   south, both deep-layer shear and low-level moisture are less. The
   eastward extent of the threat is somewhat uncertain given the
   downstream capping in place. However, modest low-level theta-e
   advection with an increase in the low-level jet may support some
   increasingly elevated, marginally severe activity this evening.

   ..Wendt.. 06/18/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FGF...

   LAT...LON   47969769 48719789 49269744 49319590 48589549 46799565
               46139637 46029708 46019772 46109784 47969769