Mesoscale Discussion 0930
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0923 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2020

   Areas affected...North-central Nebraska...Portions of central and
   eastern South Dakota

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 283...

   Valid 180223Z - 180430Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 283
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The threat for locally damaging wind gusts will continue
   for a few more hours. Most severe activity should cease by midnight
   CDT. Isolated large hail may occur with the stronger, more discrete
   storms.

   DISCUSSION...Storms that formed on the pre-frontal confluence have
   diminished in intensity as the boundary layer has begun to cool.
   Weaker deep-layer shear in northeastern South Dakota has inhibited
   storm organization as compared to south-central South Dakota into
   north-central Nebraska. Thunderstorms within southern portions of WW
   283 have generally grown upscale into small linear segments and
   multicell clusters. These storms have also had a tendency to move
   just to the cool side of the composite outflow/cold front. The more
   discrete activity in from Cherry County, NE northward to near the
   Missouri River have only produced 1-1.5 inch hail reports this
   evening. Warm temperatures aloft and a increasingly unfavorable
   storm mode should continue to limit the threat for large hail.
   Locally damaging wind gusts, particularly with any more organized
   clusters/cold pools, will be the main threat going forward. The
   expectation is for this southern activity to continue to move slowly
   east/northeastward as a 50 kt low-level jet (sampled by KLNX VAD)
   continues to provide lift along the boundary. However, with
   continued boundary-layer stabilization to the east, the severe
   potential should decrease by midnight CDT.

   ..Wendt.. 06/18/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...

   LAT...LON   42070225 44250081 44950031 45589964 45949840 45949791
               45709756 44589779 42989925 42219995 41640093 41480150
               41530186 41720216 42070225