Mesoscale Discussion 0934
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0348 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2020

   Areas affected...western Iowa...southern/southeastern Nebraska...and
   north-central Kansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 182048Z - 182245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms across the discussion area may pose a
   wind/hail threat through the evening.  This threat should be too
   isolated to necessitate a WW issuance, however.

   DISCUSSION...Scattered convection has continued to deepen over the
   past hour or so - particularly from southeastern Nebraska to western
   Iowa along and ahead of a strong front entering the region.  The
   storms are in an environment characterized by moderate to strong
   instability (exceeding 2500 J/kg MLCAPE), but marginal deep shear
   with less than 30 knots of flow throughout the lower troposphere
   near ongoing convection.  The result should be mostly
   outflow-dominant storms with occasional damaging wind gusts and hail
   especially given steep low-level lapse rates near the pre-convective
   airmass.  

   The expectation is that ongoing convection across southeastern
   Nebraska and western Iowa will continue to drift northward and pose
   an isolated severe risk before eventually being undercut by the
   advancing cold front to the west.  Additional storms may also form
   southwestward across north-central Kansas and vicinity where
   towering cumulus are now present.  The limited nature of the threat
   likely precludes a WW issuance, however.

   ..Cook/Guyer.. 06/18/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...

   LAT...LON   42239481 42069628 40909761 39699878 38929939 38309919
               38319813 39689639 41069478 41499418 42039412 42239481