Mesoscale Discussion 0937
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0127 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2020

   Areas affected...portions of central and south-central Colorado

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 191827Z - 192000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are developing over the higher terrain in
   central/south-central Colorado. Marginally severe hail and wind are
   possible with these storms, and a watch issuance is unlikely.
   However, stronger storms are expected along/east of the Front
   Range/Sangre de Cristo Mountains and across the High Plains this
   afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...An upper-level shortwave trough is moving into the
   Rocky Mountains with heights falling across the region. Forcing for
   ascent has overspread much of the Colorado Rockies with storms
   developing over the higher terrain through central Colorado. Strong
   mid-level flow has resulted in long hodographs and effective bulk
   shear of 40-50 knots per forecast soundings and mesoanalysis. While
   surface temperatures are relatively cool with modest surface
   moisture, falling temperatures aloft has resulted in ML/MUCAPE of
   500+ J/kg. Given the steep mid-level lapse rates, strong shear, and
   cold temperatures aloft, marginally severe hail is possible. Strong
   to severe wind gusts are also possible given the strong flow aloft
   and steepening low-level lapse rates. 

   These storms are likely to continue moving/developing east-northeast
   this afternoon with new development and possibly intensification of
   the current storms likely along/east of the Front Range/Sangre de
   Cristo Mountains later this afternoon. A more conducive severe storm
   environment is expected east of the mountains this afternoon and
   will be addressed in a future MCD.

   ..Nauslar/Guyer.. 06/19/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...GJT...

   LAT...LON   39740476 38700494 37930505 37730533 37730626 37830697
               37940712 38740623 39160573 39530537 39660520 39740476