Mesoscale Discussion 0939
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0320 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2020

   Areas affected...southeast Colorado and northeast New Mexico

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 192020Z - 192145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are moving eastward out of the Colorado
   Rockies and onto the High Plains. Additionally, convective
   initiation is beginning near Raton Pass and farther south in
   northeast New Mexico in the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Severe
   hail/wind are the primary threats, and a watch issuance is possible.

   DISCUSSION...An upper-level shortwave trough is moving into the
   Rockies today with forcing for ascent overspreading much of Colorado
   and into northern New Mexico. Thunderstorms developed over central
   and south-central Colorado by late morning and have continued to
   move eastward. Post-frontal cloud cover has been over much of the
   Front Range and down east of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains this
   morning/afternoon, which has limited destabilization. However, with
   upslope flow and surface dewpoints in the low 50s F, some storm
   intensification is likely east of the mountains over the High
   Plains. 

   Farther to the south, towering Cu are apparent near Raton Pass and
   south into northeast New Mexico over the eastern slopes of the
   Sangre de Cristo Mountains. A few CG lightning flashes have been
   noted with 50 dBZ reflectivity values southwest of Trinidad. This
   area has had less cloud cover today and MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg is
   now analyzed per mesoanalysis. With 35-50 knots of effective bulk
   shear, a couple of supercells may develop and move eastward across
   the Raton Mesa/High Plains and vicinity.

   Overall, the main severe threats are large hail and damaging wind
   gusts. However, a brief tornado cannot be ruled out with a discrete
   supercell. There is uncertainty regarding coverage/timing of the
   severe threat, and the ongoing cloud cover has complicated the
   forecast. Trends will continued to be monitored with a watch
   issuance possible.

   ..Nauslar/Guyer.. 06/19/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   36030335 35930481 36130490 36900491 37740505 38360497
               38520460 38480355 38300321 37200326 36350325 36030335