Mesoscale Discussion 0940
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0557 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2020

   Areas affected...Parts of southeast Colorado...far northeast New
   Mexico...western Oklahoma Panhandle

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 284...

   Valid 192257Z - 200100Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 284
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm
   Watch 0284, with large hail being the primary threat. A couple
   damaging gusts will also be possible. The main severe threat appears
   to be confined a couple semi-discrete storms in the southern parts
   of the watch. A new Severe Thunderstorm Watch or a localized
   extension will need to be considered as storms begin to move out of
   WW 0284.

   DISCUSSION...A couple of discrete/semi-discrete supercells have
   become sustained across southeast Colorado into far northeast New
   Mexico over the past couple of hours. Both KPUX dual-polarimetric
   radar and MRMS data show that these storms likely contain severe
   hail. MRMS depicts sustained 60+ dBZ cores at the -20C layer for the
   Las Animas county CO storm, suggesting that occasional significant
   severe hail may be possible. Current radar trends depict these
   storms posing as the immediate, main severe threat. 8+ C/km
   mid-level lapse rates and 45+ knot effective bulk shear values (per
   latest Mesoanalysis) suggest that large hail remains the primary
   severe threat with these storms, though a couple damaging gusts also
   remain possible. In addition, high-resolution model output,
   including the last few runs of the HRRR and experimental
   Warn-on-Forecast guidance, depict the aforementioned storms posing
   the main severe threat across southern parts of Severe Thunderstorm
   Watch 0284 over the next few hours.

   As storm begin to approach the southeastern most bounds of the
   current watch, either a new WW issuance or local extension will need
   to be considered in the next hour or two.

   ..Squitieri/Thompson.. 06/19/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   36210475 37420473 38230435 38520345 38460225 37900190
               37150203 36600228 36390244 36210475