Mesoscale Discussion 0941
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0615 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of the Texas Panhandle and South Plains
   region into southwestern Oklahoma and western North Texas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 285...

   Valid 192315Z - 200115Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 285
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Scattered strong/locally severe storms are ongoing, with
   some increase in damaging wind potential possible with time over the
   northern half of the WW in particular.

   DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows storms ongoing in a north-south
   band across the Texas South Plains vicinity, ahead of a surface
   dryline.  These storms -- given the availability of 1000 to 2000
   J/kg mixed-layer CAPE downstream -- will remain capable of producing
   hail and gusty/damaging winds locally.  Overall risk however will
   likely be mitigated by modest westerly flow at mid levels.

   Farther north, across the Texas Panhandle, somewhat stronger
   mid-level flow is evident, with a cluster of strong/severe storms
   ongoing east of Amarillo.  This convection is occurring near the
   dryline's intersection with southwestward-moving outflow associated
   with Red River convection.  With time, storm clustering/upscale
   growth appears possible, especially as the low-level jet further
   increases over the next several hours.  Eventually, a
   southeastward-moving/forward-propagating MCS may evolve, riding
   along the aforementioned outflow moving into western North Texas. 
   This scenario -- also suggested by recent HRRR runs -- could yield
   an increase in coverage of damaging wind potential.

   ..Goss.. 06/19/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

   LAT...LON   31570242 32750274 34280279 35690177 36120104 35309925
               33919855 31940025 31570242