Mesoscale Discussion 0943
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0118 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2020

   Areas affected...portions of the Dakotas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 201818Z - 202015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...A deepening Cu field is over portions of the Dakotas and
   will mature into storms this afternoon. Large hail and damaging
   winds are the main threats with these storms, and a watch issuance
   is possible across portions of the eastern Dakotas/vicinity by mid
   afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...A positively tilted shortwave trough is over central
   Canada and is phasing with a lower amplitude mid-level wave moving
   across the northern Plains and into the western Great Lakes. At the
   surface a cold front extends southwest through western North Dakota
   and westward into northeast Montana. A surface trough is extending
   southward from south-central Canada through the central Dakotas
   which is helping to strengthen surface convergence. Additionally,
   recent pressure falls over eastern North Dakota has helped increased
   surface convergence just west of the Red River with a moist tongue
   of 60+ F dewpoints extending through the eastern Dakotas. 

   Storms have been slowly moving/developing across eastern South
   Dakota into northwest Minnesota this morning/early afternoon.
   However, the main concern will be storms developing out of the
   building Cu field across eastern/central North Dakota into
   northern/eastern South Dakota. Lightning flashes were observed in
   the last 30 minutes as towering Cu are maturing into thunderstorms.

   With ongoing insolation, storms are expected to continue to develop
   and mature this afternoon. Discrete supercells are possible
   initially, before likely congealing into a QLCS or multicellular
   cluster as they move east/southeast. Large hail and damaging wind
   gusts are likely with these storms.

   ..Nauslar/Guyer.. 06/20/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...

   LAT...LON   46440102 49019880 49039823 49029759 48939727 48459700
               47139713 45399736 44429755 44419974 44870028 45960127
               46310123 46440102