Mesoscale Discussion 0945
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0348 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2020

   Areas affected...portions of the OK/TX Panhandle and northwest OK
   into western KS

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 202048Z - 202245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated storms should develop between 5-7 pm CDT. Hail
   and locally strong gusts will be possible with these storms.

   DISCUSSION...An area of agitated/deepening CU continues to develop
   across parts of the OK/TX Panhandles/northwest OK into western KS
   this afternoon. Although capping has largely been eroded by strong
   heating, subsidence on the back side of an MCV and midlevel
   shortwave impulse has likely suppressed further development for much
   of the day. Nevertheless, surface dewpoints in the upper 50s to low
   60s and temperatures in the mid/upper 80s are aiding in MLCAPE
   values between 1000-2000 J/kg. A relative minimum in midlevel lapse
   rates is noted in 20z mesoanalysis, in an otherwise plume of steeper
   lapse rates. Some additional improvement in midlevel lapse rates
   should occur toward evening as a shortwave impulse and associated
   cooling spreads over the northern and central Plains, while also
   providing stronger ascent over the region. 

   At the same time, effective shear will increase over the next few
   hours and profiles will generally favor clusters and possibly a
   supercell or two. Steep low level lapse rates and inverted-v
   sub-cloud layer thermodynamic profiles suggest locally damaging wind
   will be possible with the strongest cells, in addition to isolated
   hail. While timing of convective initiation remains a bit uncertain,
   overall observational trends and CAMs guidance suggest storms should
   develop between 22-00z. Storm coverage should remain rather
   isolated, and a watch is not expected at this time, though trends
   will be monitored.

   ..Leitman/Guyer.. 06/20/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...AMA...

   LAT...LON   38720146 39290113 39640012 39419947 38839881 38559862
               37499850 36489880 35849948 35860013 36320098 37040134
               38720146