Mesoscale Discussion 0946
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0540 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2020

   Areas affected...Permian Basin

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 202240Z - 202345Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...A couple of developing/intensifying storms will probably
   be capable of a risk for severe gusts (60-70 mph) and perhaps
   isolated large hail.

   DISCUSSION...Visible-satellite imagery and lightning data in the
   past 30 minutes shows convective initiation west and northwest of
   Midland near the NM border.  Surface conditions to the east and
   ahead of the developing storm activity show temperatures in the
   lower 90s deg F with dewpoints in the lower 60s.  RAP model forecast
   soundings appear to reasonably depict the surface conditions and
   these soundings show steep low and mid-level lapse rates.  Despite
   modest effective shear (around 20 kt), the steep lapse rates will
   likely favor the development of intense updrafts capable of isolated
   large hail.  The primary severe hazard is expected to be severe
   gusts as evaporative cooling/water loading combine with the steep
   lapse rates to yield an appreciable risk for gusts.  Peak gusts will
   probably range in the 60-70 mph range but an isolated higher gust
   cannot be ruled out.

   ..Smith/Thompson.. 06/20/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...

   LAT...LON   31510284 32320312 32870248 33120146 32380084 31440098
               31280255 31510284