Mesoscale Discussion 0948
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0728 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2020

   Areas affected...Parts of eastern South Dakota

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 286...

   Valid 210028Z - 210230Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 286
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm
   Watch 0286. The more organized storms will be capable of producing
   large hail, and a couple severe gusts cannot be ruled out.

   DISCUSSION...Multicellular thunderstorm clusters and transient,
   semi-discrete supercells are ongoing across eastern South Dakota.
   The ambient environment remains conducive for storms to remain
   organized and produce additional severe, given 1500+ J/kg MLCAPE and
   35+ knots of effective bulk shear. Given the current storm mode and
   6.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates (per 00Z ABR sounding), large hail
   appears to be the primary severe threat through the remainder of the
   evening, though a couple of severe gusts may also occur. 

   Storms are expected to gradually diminish after sunset as the
   boundary layer decouples and storms push eastward, out of the watch,
   in agreement with the last few runs of the HRRR and 12Z HREF. If a
   more intense storm persists east of the ongoing watch, a local WW
   extension could be utilized.

   ..Squitieri/Thompson.. 06/21/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...UNR...

   LAT...LON   43800031 44969900 45879785 45899692 45619665 44849709
               44159753 43579782 43149810 43009856 43109954 43800031