Mesoscale Discussion 0949
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1113 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2020

   Areas affected...southwest KS...far northwest OK

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 210413Z - 210545Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Large hail and severe gusts are possible in the near term
   associated with thunderstorms near Dodge City.  It is uncertain
   whether this storm cluster will persist southward into far northwest
   OK and still have an accompanying severe risk.

   DISCUSSION...Radar imagery shows a small cluster of severe
   thunderstorms near Dodge City embedded within a northwesterly flow
   regime.  A modest LLJ 25-35 kt sampled by KAMA and KDDC VADs is
   located on the western part of richer low-level moisture (surface
   dewpoints in the low-mid 60s via the OK Mesonet in far northwest
   OK).  However, boundary layer cooling and a gradual increase in
   convective inhibition lends uncertainty to whether storms will
   persist to the OK/KS border with a severe risk.  In the meantime,
   large hail and localized severe gusts may accompany the stronger
   cores.

   ..Smith/Thompson.. 06/21/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA...

   LAT...LON   37950027 37849925 36969884 36579922 36650004 37950027