Mesoscale Discussion 0950
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0101 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

   Areas affected...Parts of southern Oklahoma into north central Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 210601Z - 210800Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Increasing and intensifying thunderstorm development is
   possible across the region through 4-7 AM CDT, which probably will
   pose at least some risk for severe hail and wind.  It is not certain
   that a severe weather watch will be needed, but trends will continue
   to be monitored for this possibility.

   DISCUSSION...New attempts at thunderstorm initiation appear ongoing
   along the Red River near Wichita Falls TX.  This probably is being
   supported by forcing for ascent associated with warm advection in
   the 850-700 mb layer.  This is occurring along a thermal gradient
   around 700 mb that reflects stronger mid-level inhibition to the
   southwest, and extends east-southeastward into north central Texas,
   into areas near/north of the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex.

   Mid/upper support for further convective development remains
   unclear, but various model output suggest that it is possible that
   activity could be increasingly enhanced by a subtle perturbation
   approaching from the northwest.  Otherwise, convection is forming in
   an environment that is characterized by sizable CAPE (2000-3000
   J/kg) and at least modest shear.  The vertical shear is largely due
   to pronounced veering of weak to modest winds with height in the
   lower/mid troposphere, and may be sufficient for supercell
   structures which could pose a risk for severe hail and locally
   strong surface gusts.  

   An upscale growing, organizing cluster of storms which could
   eventually produce a southeastward surging surface cold pool might
   not be out of the question.  But until this occurs, storms should
   tend to only slow propagate to the east-southeast and severe weather
   potential may remain relatively isolated and localized.

   ..Kerr/Grams.. 06/21/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...

   LAT...LON   34629843 34559772 33999660 33139620 32939790 33539920
               34539933 34629843