Mesoscale Discussion 0952
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1200 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

   Areas affected...Ohio Valley into the Appalachians

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 211700Z - 211900Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...An MCV is moving northeast across the Ohio Valley with a
   destabilizing airmass downstream of it. Isolated strong to damaging
   wind gusts are possible near the MCV and the storms developing to
   its southeast. A watch issuance is unlikely.

   DISCUSSION...An upper-level shortwave trough is rotating out of the
   Mid Mississippi Valley and into the Ohio Valley. A MCV has persisted
   overnight just ahead of the vort max associated with the shortwave
   trough. With ample insolation to the northeast-southeast of the MCV,
   a building Cu field is evident via satellite imagery with initial
   thunderstorm development extending southeast from the MCV near
   Louisville. Shear is relatively weak across the region, but falling
   mid-level heights/temperatures and a moistening vertical profile
   will support thunderstorm development. As instability/buoyancy
   increase and surface temperatures rise, strong to potentially severe
   storms may develop with damaging wind gusts possible. Given the weak
   shear, outflow dominant multicellular convection is expected across
   the region, especially as forcing for ascent overspreads and
   convective temperatures are breached.

   ..Nauslar/Guyer.. 06/21/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...IND...

   LAT...LON   35858377 35678487 35908506 36628503 37368502 37938542
               38248627 38398642 38518644 39048646 39538629 39828605
               40008540 39988454 39678380 39148324 38558308 37788300
               37068300 35858377