Mesoscale Discussion 0957
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0304 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

   Areas affected...portions of the OK/TX Panhandles into
   northwest/western OK

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 212004Z - 212200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe storms will track southeast from western KS into
   portions of the eastern OK Panhandle/northeastern TX Panhandle, and
   northwest OK later this afternoon. Widespread damaging winds, hail
   and potentially a tornado are expected with these storms into the
   evening hours.

   DISCUSSION...Convective initiation appears likely with an area of
   TCU south of Garden City KS and west of Dodge City KS. These storms,
   along with additional convection further north across west-central
   KS will shift southeast toward the eastern OK/northeastern TX
   Panhandles and northwest OK over the next couple of hours. A very
   unstable airmass resides downstream of this area of developing
   convection, with dewpoints generally in the mid-to-upper 60s F
   beneath midlevel lapse rates greater than 8 C/km (per 18z RAOB from
   AMA). This is resulting in MLCAPE values great than 2500 J/kg east
   of the north-south oriented dryline. The 18z AMA RAOB indicated a
   strong cap was still in place across the TX Panhandle vicinity, but
   less inhibition should reside further north and east where deeper
   moisture is present. Additionally, effective shear greater than 35
   kt will further aid in maintenance of organized, intense convection
   as storms develop southeastward from western KS. Widespread intense,
   damaging winds will be possible with these storms into the evening
   hours as a bowing line of storms moves into the area. Large to very
   large hail is also possible with any stronger embedded cells. A
   watch will likely be needed across this area in the next couple of
   hours.

   Further south across the TX Panhandle into the TX South Plains
   vicinity, a more conditional severe threat will exist. Strong
   capping may ultimately preclude isolate, discrete supercell
   development east of the dryline. However, some guidance suggests one
   or two cells are possible. Visible satellite imagery shows a CU
   field extending southward across the OK/TX Panhandle toward CDS. If
   a cell can develop, very large hail (greater than 2 inches diameter)
   and intense downburst winds will be possible. Given the conditional
   nature of the threat, it is unclear if a watch as far south as the
   South Plains will be necessary.

   ..Leitman/Guyer.. 06/21/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   33870202 33510171 33430142 33420101 33690064 34140004
               34449988 36459858 36809848 37079893 37100006 37010156
               36860190 36420210 35500213 33870202