Mesoscale Discussion 0959
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0451 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

   Areas affected...southwest KS

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 290...

   Valid 212151Z - 212345Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 290
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A small-scale bow echo/segment appears to be in the
   initial stages of development.  Peak straight-line gusts with speeds
   70-85 mph are possible with this organizing squall line.

   DISCUSSION...CAPPI 10km radar imagery shows several large
   thunderstorm cores over southwest KS with a couple of storms
   immediately ahead of an evolving cluster of storms moving to the
   southeast.  Surface temperatures have warmed into the lower to
   middle 90s from Harper County, OK northward to near Dodge City with
   surface dewpoints ranging from the middle 60s to 68 degrees F at the
   Slapout, OK mesonet site.  As a result, the airmass across southwest
   KS has become very unstable with objective analysis indicating
   3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE immediately to the southeast of the ongoing
   storm activity.

   RAP forecast soundings/objective analysis indicates around 40kt
   effective shear over southwestern KS.  As low-level flow intensifies
   by early evening from the eastern TX Panhandle/northwest OK into
   southwestern KS, the deep-layer shear will likely strengthen further
   and become more favorable for an organized, severe squall line. 
   Once the coalescing of larger updraft cores occurs near the Dodge
   City vicinity, the expectation is for some acceleration of the
   squall line  to the south-southeast with severe gusts becoming
   spatially more dense.  Peak wind speeds in the 70-85 mph appear
   likely.

   ..Smith.. 06/21/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...

   LAT...LON   37750070 38049979 37589911 36939946 37100032 37750070