Mesoscale Discussion 0965
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0316 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2020

   Areas affected...Parts of the Texas Panhandle into central Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 220816Z - 220945Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Occasional severe hail may remain possible within the
   persistent, narrow, but vigorous ongoing band of thunderstorms for
   another hour or two, before this activity diminishes by 5-6 AM CDT.

   DISCUSSION...A persistent, vigorous band of convection across the
   eastern Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma has been generally
   supported by warm advection above the slower moving southwestern
   flank of a large convectively generated surface cold pool.  This
   activity is generally aligned with the tight thermal gradient around
   700 mb, with large mid-level inhibition to the southwest of this
   gradient suppressing new thunderstorm development.  

   Steep mid-level lapse rates, sizable CAPE and strong vertical shear
   in the convective layer have been supporting occasional severe hail
   in the stronger thunderstorm cores. It is possible that this may
   continue another hour or two.  However, by 10-11Z, latest model
   output suggests that a combination of the continuing southwestward 
   progression of the surface cold pool and eastward advection of the
   warmer, capping elevated mixed-layer air will result in the
   diminishment of this convective band.

   ..Kerr/Grams.. 06/22/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA...

   LAT...LON   35880046 35589910 35289842 34839798 34279872 34369911
               34649983 35480078 35880046