Mesoscale Discussion 0966
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1231 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2020

   Areas affected...Mid Missouri Valley

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 221731Z - 222000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Large hail and damaging winds are possible with storms as
   they develop across southern South Dakota into central/eastern
   Nebraska this afternoon. While the severe threat may be relatively
   isolated/marginal, convective trends will continued to be monitored
   for a possible watch issuance.

   DISCUSSION...In the wake of a cold front that pushed through
   yesterday, another cold front is moving slowly southward across the
   northern Plains and is currently analyzed from southwest South
   Dakota through northern Iowa. An upper-level trough continues to
   slowly move eastward across south-central Canada with low amplitude
   shortwave troughs rotating around the base of it. Current water
   vapor imagery shows one of those low amplitude shortwave troughs
   over central South Dakota. This along with daytime heating in a
   relatively moist airmass (dewpoints near 60 F) and low-level lifting
   associated with the cold front, storms are developing in far
   southern South Dakota. Additionally, a building Cu field
   south-southeast of the storms indicates ongoing destabilization. 

   Storms will move southeastward with time with new storms likely
   developing downstream in portions of central/eastern Nebraska. While
   shear is low-end for supercells, MLCAPE 1000-2000 J/kg should yield
   some robust updrafts and storm organization. There is potential for
   upscale growth into a QLCS, which would increase the wind threat
   across eastern Nebraska/vicinity. Convective trends will be
   monitored closely this afternoon.

   ..Nauslar/Guyer.. 06/22/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...GID...LBF...UNR...

   LAT...LON   43430013 43589821 42919701 41849605 41059591 40509660
               40279797 40669890 41509958 42920019 43430013