Mesoscale Discussion 0968
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1258 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2020

   Areas affected...portions of the Mid-Atlantic...eastern Great
   Lakes...Upper Ohio Valley

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 221758Z - 222030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered strong to severe storms are expected
   across portions of the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon. Damaging wind
   gusts and marginally severe hail are the main severe threats. A
   watch issuance is unlikely at this time, but convective trends will
   be monitored closely.

   DISCUSSION...An upper-level shortwave trough is moving northeast
   across the Appalachians and eastern Great Lakes and into the
   Mid-Atlantic today. At the surface, a remnant MCV continues to
   slowly move northeast and is currently analyzed in northeast Ohio.
   Storms have developed along the leading edge of the forcing for
   ascent across the eastern Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic/vicinity with
   a surface pressure trough helping to focus low-level convergence and
   convective initiation in western/central Pennsylvania into West
   Virginia and Virginia. 

   Daytime heating of a moist airmass (surface dewpoints in the upper
   60s to low 70s F) has resulted in a maturing Cu field across the
   Mid-Atlantic with some locations beginning to breach their
   respective convective temperatures. MLCAPE of 1000-2500 J/kg across
   the region will support deep convection with damaging wind gusts
   possible given steep low-level lapse rates and water loaded
   downdrafts. The lack of flow aloft will limit storm organization and
   mostly outflow dominant multicellular convection is likely. However,
   forcing for ascent from the upper-level shortwave trough coupled
   with surface features like the MCV and surface pressure trough may
   act to focus/maintain storms in a more organized manner and lead to
   a localized increase of severe hail/wind potential.

   ..Nauslar/Guyer.. 06/22/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BGM...AKQ...BUF...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...
   CLE...

   LAT...LON   37277657 36907798 37797914 39297994 40708058 41818089
               42367958 42587851 42497776 42027704 41337687 40077665
               38627656 37277657