Mesoscale Discussion 0970
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0203 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2020

   Areas affected...northern Mississippi...southwest Tennessee

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 221903Z - 222100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms have developed quickly over northwest Mississippi
   and are beginning to show supercell characteristics. Isolated
   damaging winds and a brief tornado are possible. A watch is
   currently not anticipated given the relative isolated nature of the
   severe threat.

   DISCUSSION...Just downstream from a MCV in eastern Arkansas, a
   couple of storms have developed and intensified quickly in northwest
   Mississippi. MLCAPE of of 1000-1500 J/kg has developed between the
   convective complex to the south and the MCV induced cloud cover to
   its west/north. Low-level veering of the winds per the KNQA VAD and
   surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s indicate the potential
   for a weak tornado with a discrete supercell. While deep layer shear
   is overall relatively marginal for supercells, low-level helicity
   and strong buoyancy are likely compensating. Cloud cover to the
   north in southwest Tennessee and to the south in central Mississippi
   may leave a relatively narrow corridor for severe potential in
   northern Mississippi and far southwest Tennessee as storms move
   east-northeast. All severe threats are possible, but damaging wind
   gusts and a brief tornado are most likely if a storm can strengthen
   and maintain its intensity/organization for a long enough period.

   ..Nauslar/Guyer.. 06/22/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...HUN...MEG...JAN...

   LAT...LON   34468811 34178826 34138939 34119079 34539088 34959038
               35518947 35478804 34468811