Mesoscale Discussion 0978
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0355 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2020

   Areas affected...Parts of the Texas Big Country into north central
   Texas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 297...

   Valid 230855Z - 231030Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 297
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Strong wind gusts may continue another hour or two with a
   surface cold pool approaching the Junction, Brownwood, Temple
   vicinities.  Otherwise, strongest thunderstorms likely will continue
   to develop into the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex, and areas to the
   south-southwest, through 5-6 AM CDT.  This may pose a risk for
   severe wind gusts before storms weaken.

   DISCUSSION...A lower/mid tropospheric cyclonic mesoscale circulation
   has evolved and is now north-northeast of Abilene, and slowly
   migrating east-southeastward.  This appeared to occur where
   low-level moisture was maximized beneath elevated mixed-layer air,
   along the remnants of a zone of stronger differential daytime
   heating and boundary-layer mixing, contributing to a localized area
   of CAPE on the order of 3000-4000 J/kg.  Inflow of this area
   supported intensifying convection and a strengthening associated
   surface cold pool, which is now surging southeast of Abilene.  This
   may approach the Hill Country within the next couple of hours,
   before inflow of less unstable air results in diminishing convective
   intensities along it.

   Meanwhile, weak low-level warm advection downstream of the MCV is
   contributing to increasing convective development in bands as far
   east as the Interstate 35 corridor across and south of the
   Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex.  This is where considerable further
   upscale growth is expected to result in the evolution of the primary
   cluster of storms by 10-11Z.  This activity may pose a risk for
   another strong downburst and swath of strong to severe surface
   gusts, before convection wanes around daybreak.

   ..Kerr.. 06/23/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

   LAT...LON   33319800 33499741 33239636 32649612 31539716 30819846
               30929930 31489962 32189840 33319800