Mesoscale Discussion 0980
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0156 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2020

   Areas affected...much of central and eastern New Mexico

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 231856Z - 232130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms will increase in coverage this afternoon, with
   areas of damaging wind gusts and hail.

   DISCUSSION...Surface observations show dewpoints holding in the
   upper 40s to lower 50s F over central NM, with persistent
   southeasterly surface winds. Meanwhile, lapse rates continue to
   steepen with heating. 

   Visible imagery shows storms beginning to form over the west-central
   mountains and northeastward across the mountains of northern NM.
   Since the air mass is already unstable with over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE
   over most of the area, scattered to numerous storms are expected by
   late afternoon, traveling in a southeastward direction. Deep-layer
   shear may be sufficient to sustain a few cells capable of marginally
   severe hail, and outflow production may increase with time as
   mergers occur, resulting in localized wind damage. As such, a watch
   may need to be considered.

   ..Jewell/Dial.. 06/23/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MAF...PUB...ABQ...EPZ...

   LAT...LON   32620480 32740577 33570719 33890761 34420770 35240751
               35650706 35890639 35950569 36400513 37230481 37300471
               37170389 36820331 36350313 34860309 33710331 33060346
               32700399 32620480