Mesoscale Discussion 0985
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0110 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2020

   Areas affected...Far Southeast/Southern MS...Central/Southern
   AL...Far Western FL Panhandle.

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 241810Z - 242015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Increasing thunderstorm coverage and intensity is expected
   over the next few hours. Damaging wind gusts and a brief tornado or
   two possible.

   DISCUSSION...Recent radar and visible satellite imagery shows a pair
   of MCVs, one about 30 miles northwest of MEI in east-central MS and
   the other just north of Lake Pontchartrain in eastern LA. The
   southern MCV is more well-defined and is moving northeastward into a
   more unstable air mass. Thunderstorms surrounding this MCV have
   recently shown gradually increasing updraft strength. Northern MCV
   is also moving northeastward, but the downstream air mass across
   northern AL is less unstable and updrafts surrounding this system
   are more shallow (evidenced by the lack of lightning).

   Temperatures across this area are in the upper 80s/low 90s amid
   dewpoints in the low 70s. These conditions are supporting moderate
   instability amid the poor mid-level lapse rates. Additionally,
   low-level lapse rates are steep, with recent mesoanalysis estimating
   7.5 to 8 deg C per km across much of the region. Current expectation
   is for these conditions to support increased thunderstorm activity
   across central/southern AL and adjacent portions of the western FL
   Panhandle as the southern MCV moves into the area. A few damaging
   downbursts are possible with the stronger, more cellular storms. 

   Damaging wind gusts are also possible along the leading edge of the
   MCV (currently over far southern MS), where an organized line
   appears to be developing. Recent storm motion with this line was
   estimated to be northeastward at 45 kt. Enhanced low-level vertical
   shear near this line could also contribute to a brief tornado or
   two.

   ..Mosier/Dial.. 06/24/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

   LAT...LON   30988917 31618872 32078795 32228606 31638557 30818566
               30518623 30428680 30358792 30488907 30988917