Mesoscale Discussion 0989
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0329 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2020

   Areas affected...central Idaho into southern Montana and northwest
   Wyoming

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 242029Z - 242230Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms are beginning to develop across the northern
   Rockies in central Idaho and through southwest Montana. Damaging
   wind gusts are the main severe threat with these storms. A watch
   issuance is unlikely given the relatively marginal/isolated severe
   threat.

   DISCUSSION...An upper-level trough is moving over the Pacific
   Northwest and into the northern Rockies, which is
   displacing/flattening the upper ridge to the east/south. Surface
   temperatures have warmed into the 70s and 80s F across central Idaho
   and into southern Montana and northwest Wyoming with surface
   dewpoints mostly in the 40s and low 50s F. MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg
   is analyzed across the region per mesoanalysis with isolated to
   scattered thunderstorms developing out of a maturing Cu field. The
   stronger flow aloft will remain just to the north of this area,
   which will limit shear and storm organization. However, with
   synoptic forcing for ascent aloft, isolated storms are likely to
   intensify and move east-northeast this afternoon and into the
   evening. Damaging wind gusts will be possible with these storms as
   the environment is characterized by high-based inverted-v soundings
   and DCAPE of 1000+ J/kg. Marginally severe hail may also be possible
   with the strongest storms given the cool temperatures aloft.

   ..Nauslar/Dial.. 06/24/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...PIH...MSO...BOI...

   LAT...LON   44091261 43791478 44431599 45251624 45871568 46271466
               46341272 46381004 45830893 45630850 45050816 44640865
               44091261