Mesoscale Discussion 0992
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0528 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2020

   Areas affected...northwest MT

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 242228Z - 242330Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Large hail (1-2 inches in diameter) and isolated severe
   gusts (60-70 mph) will likely accompany several supercells as they
   move east across the Glacier National Park vicinity and towards I-15
   this evening.  The expected spatial extent of the severe risk lends
   uncertainty whether a severe thunderstorm watch is warranted.

   DISCUSSION...KMSX radar imagery shows supercells moving through Lake
   and Flathead counties as of 2225z.  Surface analysis indicates
   relatively more moist/unstable conditions are located in
   valleys/mountains with dewpoints in the 50s degrees F vs. more mixed
   40s F dewpoints farther east in the plains at Cut Bank and Great
   Falls.  Ample speed shear is sampled by KMSX VAD data which supports
   organized storm structures/supercells.  Expecting a hail/wind risk
   for the areas west of the plains with the threat transitioning to
   primarily severe gusts east of the Rocky Mountain Front.

   ..Smith/Edwards.. 06/24/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TFX...MSO...

   LAT...LON   47511417 48251484 48891387 48891238 48081154 47461147
               47511417