Mesoscale Discussion 0993
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0759 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2020

   Areas affected...southwest KS

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 301...

   Valid 250059Z - 250200Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 301
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Large to very large hail and severe gusts are likely
   through 9pm CDT with a severe thunderstorm cluster approaching
   Greensburg/Dodge City.

   DISCUSSION...The 7pm CDT Dodge City observed sounding showed dry
   adiabatic lapse rates (9.8 degrees C/km in the 0-3 km layer) and an
   inverted-v structure in the deep/well-mixed boundary layer.  Around
   1000 J/kg MLCAPE was sampled.  Southerly low-level flow veers to
   westerly and northwesterly in the mid to upper levels and is
   resulting in around 35-40 kt effective shear.  As the surface
   temperatures gradually cool this evening, convective inhibition will
   slowly increase.  However, the steep lapse rates immediately above
   the cooling near-surface layer will still favor ample evaporative
   cooling with the stronger downdraft pulses.  Severe gusts 60-75 mph
   are possible before this activity likely weakens during the late
   evening hours (roughly 10pm onward).

   ..Smith.. 06/25/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DDC...

   LAT...LON   38139964 37819912 37109915 37169996 38139964