Mesoscale Discussion 0994
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1248 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2020

   Areas affected...northeast West Virginia...central through northern
   Virginia...southern Pennsylvania and western Maryland

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 251748Z - 251945Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing over the Middle Atlantic will
   pose some risk for isolated locally strong wind gusts and marginally
   severe hail. Overall threat is not expected to become sufficient for
   a WW issuance.

   DISCUSSION...This afternoon scattered thunderstorms are developing
   over the central Appalachians including WV into southwest PA
   fostered by orographic forcing and destabilization. Deeper forcing
   for ascent attending an upstream shortwave trough will also glance
   this region this afternoon. Weak mid-level lapse rates and modest
   low-level moisture should limit MLCAPE to near 1500 J/kg. While
   winds through the lowest 3 km remain weak, a belt of stronger
   westerly flow aloft within base of a synoptic trough with 45 kt at
   500 mb is promoting 40-45 kt effective shear. Both multicell and
   marginal supercell structures are anticipated, but the  marginal
   thermodynamic environment is expected to remain a limiting factor
   for a more robust severe threat.

   ..Dial/Thompson.. 06/25/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...

   LAT...LON   40047689 39537624 38447656 37277700 37547913 38397950
               39347882 39967763 40047689