Mesoscale Discussion 0995
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0109 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2020

   Areas affected...southern Alabama...southwest Georgia and the
   northern Florida Panhandle

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 251809Z - 252015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of producing a few locally strong to
   damaging wind gusts will continue developing this afternoon. A ww
   will probably not be needed unless storms begin to show signs of
   better organization.

   DISCUSSION...Convergence augmented by differential heating in
   vicinity of a weak stationary boundary and destabilization of the
   surface layer has contributed to the development of thunderstorms
   from southern AL into southwest GA. This activity will likely
   persist this afternoon, possibly evolving into clusters as they
   spread east. The latest objective analysis shows the atmosphere to
   be moderately unstable with low to mid 70s F dewpoints supporting
   2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE. This region resides on the southern periphery
   of a belt of modest mid-level westerlies within the base of a
   synoptic trough with 30-35 kt wind speeds in the 3-5 km layer. Weak
   vertical shear suggests multicells, but activity may become capable
   of producing a few locally strong to damaging gusts as low-level
   lapse rates undergo further steepening.

   ..Dial/Thompson.. 06/25/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...

   LAT...LON   31708810 31768592 31178360 30558413 31088811 31708810