Mesoscale Discussion 0996
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0116 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2020

   Areas affected...Eastern North Dakota...central/eastern South
   Dakota...north-central Nebraska

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 251816Z - 252015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms in northeastern ND have intensified along a weak
   warm front. farther south and west, boundary-layer destabilization
   continues ahead of the cold front and MCVs. Storm coverage and
   intensity is expected to increase this afternoon. Storms will be
   capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. Supercell structures
   are possible and will pose the greatest risk for very large hail. A
   WW or two is possible in the next 1-2 hours.

   DISCUSSION...Surface-based destabilization continues to increase
   ahead of a cold front across the central portion of the Dakotas.
   MCVs are also evident in satellite/radar imagery in south-central ND
   and central NE. Strong heating from southeastern ND into central
   Nebraska with dewpoints holding in the low 60s F should support
   MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg this afternoon. Local enhancements to the
   mid-level flow by the MCVs will support effective shear of 30-40
   kts. Large hail and damaging wind gusts are possible with as storm
   coverage and intensity increases this afternoon. A risk for very
   large hail will be present with any marginal supercells that
   develop. While scattered storm coverage is expected, there may be a
   relative minimum in coverage along the eastern ND/SD border as anvil
   debris from the MCV is more abundant in this area.

   Across northeastern ND, storms have developed in what appears to be
   a weak warm advection regime along a weak warm frontal boundary.
   Cloud cover has been present all morning across much of this area
   and into northwestern Minnesota. The southern fringe of that
   activity may continue to remain intense with temperatures warming
   into the low 80s F in the immediate vicinity of the front. How long
   this activity progresses east remains in question.

   Convective trends will continue to be monitored, but a WW or two may
   be proposed in the next 1-2 hours.

   ..Wendt/Thompson.. 06/25/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...

   LAT...LON   47409943 48069933 48259869 47939772 46239714 43029831
               42169876 41829931 41750035 41810080 42280108 42580107
               43080096 44070052 45219998 47409943