Mesoscale Discussion 0999
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0331 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2020

   Areas affected...Southeastern North Dakota and adjacent western
   Minnesota

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 303...

   Valid 252031Z - 252230Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 303
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A few damaging wind gusts and isolated large hail will
   remain possible in southeastern North Dakota. A few storms may form
   to the west. The severe threat to the west is unclear, but
   observational trends suggest that it will be more marginal than in
   southeastern North Dakota.

   DISCUSSION...A cluster of strong/severe storms continues to move
   south and east along a weak warm frontal boundary across eastern
   North Dakota. A few isolated reports of severe hail have occurred
   over the past couple of hours. A fairly small area of buoyant
   airmass remains to the south of the ongoing activity. Objective
   mesoanalysis still shows 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE in southeastern North
   Dakota, though dewpoints have recently mixed out into the upper 50s
   F immediately west of the Red River. The most likely scenario at
   this point appears to be that the ongoing cluster will continue
   south/southeastward for a few hours until encountering an
   increasingly stable airmass. High resolution and RAP guidance
   continues to suggest that further development is possible within the
   MCV that is now entering the southwestern portions of WW 303 or
   possible along the advancing cold front. However, cloud cover has
   limited surface-based instability and the magnitude of the severe
   threat with any storms forming to the west is unclear.

   ..Wendt.. 06/25/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...

   LAT...LON   47769850 47929779 47649667 47229628 46349623 46049663
               45929751 46089825 46649883 47229911 47589878 47769850