Mesoscale Discussion 1005
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0745 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2020

   Areas affected...central NE...far northern KS

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 304...

   Valid 260045Z - 260145Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 304
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The risk for large hail/severe gusts will continue this
   evening but the risk will gradually transition to mainly a wind
   threat as additional upscale growth occurs this evening.

   DISCUSSION...7pm surface analysis indicates a low over west-central
   NE with a low-level moisture plume wrapping cyclonically around the
   low from eastern NE westward into north-central NE and into the
   eastern NE Panhandle.  Within the moisture plume, larger CAPE is
   noted in objective analysis with 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE over central
   NE.  Farther east, weaker buoyancy was sampled by the 7pm Omaha
   observed sounding (1400 J/kg MLCAPE).  Although deep-layer flow
   remains modest, ample buoyancy has combined to result in organized
   severe storm structures early this evening.  The more intense
   thunderstorms will likely continue to pose a risk for large hail and
   severe gusts.  A southerly LLJ is forecast to strengthen during the
   evening coincident with cold pools coalescing, which will favor
   additional upscale growth.  The severe risk is expected to
   transition to mainly a threat for severe gusts (60-70 mph) with the
   stronger downdrafts as storms gradually move east through central
   portions of NE.

   ..Smith.. 06/26/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD...

   LAT...LON   42930116 42070150 41590088 40840013 39680006 40149898
               41909808 42829872 42930116