Mesoscale Discussion 1012
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0630 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2020

   Areas affected...North-Central/Northeast Kansas...Southeast
   Nebraska...Southwest Iowa...Northwest Missouri

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 262330Z - 270100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm watch may be warranted if
   thunderstorms develop over the next 1-2 hours. Hail/wind are the
   main threats.

   DISCUSSION...Weak short-wave ridging, in the wake of northern IL
   MCS, is expected to shift east across the mid-MO Valley over the
   next few hours. Latest water-vapor imagery suggests this is
   underway, and brief subsidence will wane. This should become more
   supportive for thunderstorm development over the next few hours.

   Latest vis satellite imagery exhibits a substantial cu field from
   north-central KS, arcing into southwest IA. Within this field,
   several deeper towers are beginning to generate anvils along with a
   few showers. Sustained low-level warm advection should aid
   convective development over the next few hours, especially as LLJ
   strengthens after sunset. CAMs support a considerable increase along
   this corridor, just south of the wind shift, and this lends
   confidence that a severe thunderstorm watch may be needed by 01z.

   ..Darrow/Edwards.. 06/26/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...

   LAT...LON   39739781 40379727 41139579 41049424 40199459 38709652
               38999762 39739781