Mesoscale Discussion 1014
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0809 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2020

   Areas affected...Southwestern Michigan

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 307...

   Valid 270109Z - 270215Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 307
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The greatest severe wind/brief tornado threat will be
   across southwest Michigan for the next 1 to 2 hours.

   DISCUSSION...A line of storms has become better organized over Lake
   Michigan in the past hour. Modest instability (~1000 J/kg MLCAPE per
   SPC mesoanalysis) is present across southwest Michigan ahead of this
   line of storms. This instability, combined with 50+ kts of effective
   shear, should adequately support a continued damaging-wind threat.
   The greatest damaging-wind corridors will likely be near bowing
   segments within the greater squall line. 

   In addition, a warm front is slowly lifting north across Michigan
   with surface winds backed out of the south and southeast near this
   warm front. These locally backed winds have resulted in effective
   SRH around 300 m2/s2 per SPC mesoanalysis. Therefore, a few QLCS
   tornadic circulations are possible. In fact, one area of persistent
   low-level rotation is now moving into western Van Buren county at
   01Z.

   ..Bentley.. 06/27/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...

   LAT...LON   41828674 42138665 42598623 42678576 42568518 42278482
               41948484 41708508 41638566 41718656 41828674