Mesoscale Discussion 1016
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0940 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2020

   Areas affected...Far eastern Illinois across northern
   Indiana...southeast Michigan...and much of Ohio.

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 307...

   Valid 270240Z - 270415Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...A line of storms which is producing damaging winds from
   eastern Illinois into south-central Michigan, and continues to sag
   south. Local watch extensions and/or a downstream watch may be
   needed.

   DISCUSSION...Numerous reports of wind damage and measured severe
   wind gusts have been reported along a line of storms from eastern
   Illinois into southern Michigan. Most damaging winds have been
   associated with individual bowing segments embedded within this
   line. However, despite very strong wind signatures aloft, it does
   not appear the stronger (70+ kt) winds sampled by KIWX at 3-4kft are
   reaching the surface based on the recent 52 mph wind gust at KVPZ
   which was at the apex of the bowing segment associated with the
   strongest wind signature based on radar. However, the environment
   continues to remain favorable for damaging winds ahead of this line,
   and there is potential for some of these stronger winds from aloft
   to reach the surface. 

   The unstable environment ahead of this line and a strengthening
   low-level jet (now >50 kts per KIWX VWP between 1-2 km) should
   sustain the severe weather threat well into the overnight hours.
   Therefore, a downstream watch will likely be needed. The timing of a
   new watch remains uncertain as IWX can locally extend watch 307 in
   the short term, but eventually the line of storms will reach south
   and east of the IWX CWA which will likely necessitate a new watch if
   severe convection persists as expected.

   ..Bentley/Edwards.. 06/27/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...DTX...IWX...IND...LOT...

   LAT...LON   41268697 41168786 41078836 40688840 40488816 40528677
               40398626 40058487 39328349 39248243 39918177 40598126
               41338166 42028257 41268697