Mesoscale Discussion 1025
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0318 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2020

   Areas affected...portions of eastern Colorado

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 272018Z - 272215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms are beginning to develop along the eastern slopes
   of the Colorado Rockies, and storms are likely to move off the
   higher terrain over the Plains this afternoon/evening. Severe
   wind/hail will be possible with these storms. While an immediate
   watch is currently not anticipated, a downstream watch this evening
   is possible.

   DISCUSSION...A positively-tilted upper-level shortwave trough is
   moving over the Southwest and Colorado Rockies. At the surface, weak
   upslope flow and ample insolation has resulted in a maturing Cu
   field across the far southern Front Range and Sangre de Cristo
   Mountains and back westward across southern Colorado. Surface
   moisture is rather marginal with dewpoints in the 40s F, which will
   act to limit storm intensity, although falling heights aloft and
   terrain-induced circulations will likely result in isolated strong
   to severe thunderstorms. Given the well-mixed boundary layer and
   inverted-V sounding profiles, damaging wind gusts will be the main
   severe threat. Marginally severe hail is also possible with
   sufficient mid-level speed shear and lapse rates. As these storms
   move generally eastward, surface moisture will increase and a
   somewhat organized cluster could develop in eastern Colorado into
   western Kansas where a more likely severe threat could materialize
   by this evening.

   ..Nauslar/Thompson.. 06/27/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   37940269 37080259 36840376 37130451 38340514 38810516
               39210508 39380432 39520317 38990289 37940269