Mesoscale Discussion 1026
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0353 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2020

   Areas affected...far northern Montana

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 272053Z - 272230Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated high-based supercells capable of marginally
   severe hail/wind are possible in the next 1-2 hours across far
   northern Montana. Given the isolated/marginal severe threat, a watch
   is unlikely.

   DISCUSSION...A vigorous upper-level trough is moving over the
   Pacific Northwest with falling heights across the northern Rockies
   and northern High Plains. A surface cold front is draped generally
   east-west across far northern Montana with a building Cu field
   across north-central Montana. A storm has developed near Havre and
   intensified in the last 15-30 minutes. A couple of other
   strong/severe storms may develop out of this Cu field this afternoon
   and move to the east-northeast across far northern Montana.
   Effective bulk shear around 40 knots and MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg
   with approximately 30 F dewpoint depressions indicate the potential
   for high-based supercells capable of marginally severe hail/wind.
   Given the how close to the Canadian border these storms are
   developing and the east-northeast storm motion, there is a
   relatively narrow corridor within Montana for potential severe
   weather.

   ..Nauslar/Thompson.. 06/27/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GGW...TFX...

   LAT...LON   48150933 48270786 48620736 49030697 49190742 49080931
               48711067 48151047 48150933