Mesoscale Discussion 1028
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0601 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2020

   Areas affected...Eastern CO...Western KS...Southwestern NE

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 272301Z - 280100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will spread/develop east across the central
   High Plains this evening. Gusty winds and some hail are expected.

   DISCUSSION...Strong diurnal heating has once again served as the
   primary instigator in convective initiation over the higher terrain
   of central/southern CO. A broken line of thunderstorms now stretches
   from Lincoln County - Pueblo County and this activity is spreading
   east at roughly 20kt. By 01z, if this convection holds together, the
   leading edge will be near the CO/KS border. Downstream across
   southwestern KS, radar/satellite imagery depict an old boundary
   advancing north-northeast at roughly 13kt. Boundary-layer cu field
   is notably more agitated south of the wind shift where surface
   temperatures have soared into the upper 90s/low 100s. As a result,
   very steep low-level lapse rates are in place for potential gusty
   downdrafts. Latest thinking is CO convection should hold together
   and likely increase in areal coverage after sunset as LLJ
   strengthens over the High Plains. LLJ is forecast to increase to
   near 50kt by 06z and this is a bit stronger than Friday night. For
   these reasons, an upward-evolving MCS may ultimately spread across
   the central High Plains and a severe thunderstorm watch is currently
   being considered.

   ..Darrow/Guyer.. 06/27/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...

   LAT...LON   37260156 37780301 39520250 40590145 40079927 37659986
               37260156