Mesoscale Discussion 1036
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0154 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2020

   Areas affected...parts of central North Dakota

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 281854Z - 282100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms will form within the surface trough/front between
   21 and 23Z, with large hail and maybe a couple tornadoes.

   DISCUSSION...Strong instability continues to develop over the
   Dakotas with over 3000 J/kg MLCAPE. A north-south oriented surface
   trough/front extends across west-central ND, with increasing
   vertical vorticity and convergence.

   Visible imagery confirms ample moisture is in place with substantial
   CU fields developing. As the cap is completely eroded over the next
   few hours, subtle lift will cause storms to form from north to south
   within the surface trough/front. Lapse rates are steep, and will
   favor rapid development. While SRH is not particularly high,
   substantial low-level stretching and slow storm motions within the
   enhanced vertical vorticity zone may allow a broken line of storms
   to produce tornadoes prior to merging. In addition, large hail is
   possible with the initial strong cores.

   ..Jewell/Thompson.. 06/28/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BIS...

   LAT...LON   49130026 47080078 46560108 46380152 46420193 46730229
               47650243 48620256 49110251 49130026