Mesoscale Discussion 1039
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0342 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2020

   Areas affected...North-central Iowa into southeastern Minnesota

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 282042Z - 282245Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms associated with an MCV may produce funnel clouds
   and possibly a brief tornado. The extent of the favorable
   environment will be limited. The need for a WW is not clear, though
   trends will continue to be monitored.

   DISCUSSION...As an MCV continues to move to the north and east, a
   small area of favorable overlap of low-level helicity, deep-layer
   shear, and buoyant air will occur in north-central IA and
   southeastern MN. After weak convection near the MCV core produced an
   earlier funnel cloud report on Calhoun County, IA, a storm has
   recently formed northwest of Mason City. Funnel clouds as well as a
   brief tornado will be possible with storms that can become mature.
   How far north this activity will progress is a bit uncertain given
   the marginal thermodynamics. Convective trends will continue to be
   monitored, but the spatial extent of the threat as well uncertainty
   regarding storm intensity/longevity currently reduces confidence in
   the need for a WW.

   ..Wendt/Thompson.. 06/28/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DMX...

   LAT...LON   43759430 44279433 44699376 44669284 44249198 43699209
               43009285 42989388 43459434 43759430